{"id":4702,"date":"2023-08-26T14:04:09","date_gmt":"2023-08-26T12:04:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/?p=4702"},"modified":"2023-08-26T14:04:09","modified_gmt":"2023-08-26T12:04:09","slug":"ekonomicky-cyklus-aneb-tajemstvi-proc-bohati-bohatnou-a-chudi-chudnou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/2023\/08\/26\/ekonomicky-cyklus-aneb-tajemstvi-proc-bohati-bohatnou-a-chudi-chudnou\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomick\u00fd cyklus aneb tajemstv\u00ed pro\u010d bohat\u00ed bohatnou a chud\u00ed chudnou"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Bohatstv\u00ed je z\u00e1kladn\u00ed lidsk\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo. Ekonomick\u00fd cyklus p\u0159eskupuje <strong>bohatstv\u00ed<\/strong>. Dluhy a \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 cykly. Syst\u00e9m inflace a deflace. Dluhov\u00fd vrchol a dal\u0161\u00ed faktory. Co d\u011blat a jak se p\u0159ipravit.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Existuje zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm se dne\u0161n\u00ed takzvan\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed elita dopracovala sv\u00e9ho nezm\u011brn\u00e9ho bohatstv\u00ed, moci a vlivu, kter\u00fd nyn\u00ed t\u011b\u017ece zneu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed proti v\u0161em ostatn\u00edm lidem ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>N\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00e1mo\u017en\u00e9 rodiny zejm\u00e9na z Ameriky, Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nie a N\u011bmecka tohoto efektu vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed ji\u017e nejm\u00e9n\u011b sto let ba mo\u017en\u00e1 cel\u00e1 stalet\u00ed. Ob\u010das tento efekt popostr\u010d\u00ed n\u011bjakou \u0159\u00edzenou akc\u00ed jako je ekonomick\u00e1 krize <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2021\/11\/21\/celosvetove-rizeny-ekonomicky-kolaps-se-blizi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(psal jsem zde)<\/a>, na kterou se p\u0159edem p\u0159iprav\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stejn\u011b jako oni mohli z\u00e1kony ekonomick\u00e9ho cyklu vyu\u017e\u00edt pro sebe, m\u016f\u017eeme i my vyu\u017e\u00edt t\u011bchto z\u00e1konitost\u00ed ve prosp\u011bch n\u00e1s lid\u00ed. M\u016f\u017eeme je vyu\u017e\u00edt k tomu, abychom zbohatli. Nikoli jako hrstka jednotlivc\u016f \u010di rodin, ale jako cel\u00e1 spole\u010dnost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pro tyto \u00fa\u010dely lze vyu\u017e\u00edt motiva\u010dn\u00ed obraz s cit\u00e1tem: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.motivar.cz\/motivacni-obraz-s-citatem-nedivej-se-prilis-daleko-dopredu--ale-jdi-dal-s-klidnym-srdcem\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201eNed\u00edvej se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 daleko, ale jdi d\u00e1l s klidn\u00fdm srdcem.\u201c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bohatstv\u00ed jako z\u00e1kladn\u00ed lidsk\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u017d\u00edt bohat\u00fdm a napln\u011bn\u00fdm \u017eivotem v dostatku je z\u00e1kladn\u00ed lidsk\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo. Je to ov\u0161em pr\u00e1vo, nikoli povinnost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/micheile-henderson-lZ_4nPFKcV8-unsplash-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"ekonomick\u00fd cyklus, r\u016fst, rostlina, strom, pspory, pen\u00edze, bohatstv\u00ed a blahobyt\" class=\"wp-image-4708\" width=\"281\" height=\"187\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/micheile-henderson-lZ_4nPFKcV8-unsplash-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/micheile-henderson-lZ_4nPFKcV8-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/micheile-henderson-lZ_4nPFKcV8-unsplash-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/micheile-henderson-lZ_4nPFKcV8-unsplash-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/micheile-henderson-lZ_4nPFKcV8-unsplash-150x100.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/micheile-henderson-lZ_4nPFKcV8-unsplash-696x464.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/micheile-henderson-lZ_4nPFKcV8-unsplash-1068x712.jpg 1068w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/micheile-henderson-lZ_4nPFKcV8-unsplash.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 281px) 100vw, 281px\" \/><figcaption>Strom bohatstv\u00ed roste ze sem\u00ednka \u00faspor. Ekonomick\u00fd cyklus pak m\u016f\u017ee urychlit jeho r\u016fst nebo seschnut\u00ed.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>A za svoje pr\u00e1va se mus\u00ed b\u00fdt ka\u017ed\u00fd schopen postavit s\u00e1m. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, bohatstv\u00ed V\u00e1m nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee ani zaru\u010dit ani zajistit. Tedy krom\u011b V\u00e1s samotn\u00fdch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Je vhodn\u00e9 upozornit na fakt, \u017ee bohatstv\u00ed nelze zam\u011b\u0148ovat s konzumerismem a pl\u00fdtv\u00e1n\u00edm. Je\u0161t\u011b nikdo nezbohatl rozhazov\u00e1n\u00edm pen\u011bz a okat\u00fdm pl\u00fdtv\u00e1n\u00edm. A t\u011bch p\u00e1r jedinc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se hodily do kr\u00e1mu propagandy, aby to vypadalo, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b to je cesta k bohatstv\u00ed, si sv\u00e9 bohatstv\u00ed v naprost\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f neudr\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bohatstv\u00ed v prav\u00e9m slova smyslu znamen\u00e1 naopak skromnost, st\u0159\u00eddmost, spo\u0159\u00e1danost, pracovitost, schopnost tvo\u0159it p\u0159ebytky, kter\u00e9 pak m\u016f\u017ee \u010dlov\u011bk investovat a rozmno\u017eovat d\u00e1le.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Psal jsem o tvorb\u011b bohatstv\u00ed v\u00edce zde: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2023\/06\/17\/nejbohatsi-muz-v-babylone-aneb-cesta-k-bohatstvi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Nejbohat\u0161\u00ed mu\u017e v Babyl\u00f3n\u011b aneb cesta k bohatstv\u00ed (\u010dt\u011bte zde)<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<script async=\"\" src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script><!-- Automatick\u00e1 velikost reklamy --><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: block;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9221645303649413\" data-ad-slot=\"8661693083\" data-ad-format=\"auto\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins><script>\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Co je to ekonomick\u00fd cyklus<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ekonomick\u00fd cyklus je vlastn\u011b opakuj\u00edc\u00ed se obdob\u00ed r\u016fst\u016f a pokles\u016f, kter\u00e9 se st\u0159\u00eddaj\u00ed v \u010dase. Ekonomick\u00fd cyklus trval historicky za posledn\u00edch sto let v pr\u016fm\u011bru cca 7 let. Tedy ka\u017ed\u00fdch sedm let se vyst\u0159\u00eddal r\u016fst s poklesem. A ka\u017ed\u00fd pokles je p\u0159itom obvykle za\u010d\u00e1tkem dal\u0161\u00edho r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pokles p\u0159itom neznamen\u00e1 nic men\u0161\u00edho ani hor\u0161\u00edho, ne\u017e o\u010distn\u00fd proces. Proces, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m se \u0161patn\u00e9 investice a nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed nep\u0159irozen\u00e9 nerovnov\u00e1hy uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed do stavu rovnov\u00e1hy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00fd cyklus je zn\u00e1m\u00fd jako kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd. Pak existuj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9 a dlouhodob\u00e9 cykly s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi dobami trv\u00e1n\u00ed a p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinami. St\u0159edn\u011b i dlouhodob\u00fd cyklus m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nap\u0159\u00edklad d\u016fsledkem n\u011bjak\u00e9 technick\u00e9 inovace, jej\u00ed\u017e potenci\u00e1l trv\u00e1 des\u00edtky let.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Jako p\u0159\u00edklad dlouhodob\u00e9ho cyklu uve\u010fme automobilismus. Spalovac\u00ed motor s n\u00e1slednou schopnost\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed mobility lid\u00ed a zbo\u017e\u00ed vedl k sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu rozkv\u011btu a mnoha dal\u0161\u00edm inovac\u00edm. Jeho potenci\u00e1l se ale nyn\u00ed pomalu vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1. Auto u\u017e m\u00e1 dnes skoro ka\u017ed\u00fd a tak automobilov\u00fd cyklus pomalu kon\u010d\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>S t\u00edmto v\u011bdom\u00edm historicky se opakuj\u00edc\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed (chcete-li kriz\u00ed), je pak snaz\u0161\u00ed se pod\u00edvat na sv\u011bt s v\u011bdom\u00edm \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch souvislost\u00ed a d\u011bj\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Um\u011bl\u00e9 prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch cykl\u016f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Vychylene-kostky-unsplash-685x1024.jpg\" alt=\"kostky, ekonomick\u00fd cyklus, ekonomika, p\u0159ed p\u00e1dem,  kolaps\" class=\"wp-image-4464\" width=\"366\" height=\"547\"\/><figcaption>Mrakodrap z kostek jako ekonomick\u00fd cyklus bez spr\u00e1vn\u00e9ho z\u00e1kladu. Zdroj Unsplash<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Sou\u010dasn\u00fd kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd cyklus byl um\u011bl\u00fdmi z\u00e1sahy (nap\u0159\u00edklad ti\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm pen\u011bz a n\u00edzk\u00fdmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami) v\u00fdznamn\u011b prodlou\u017een a od roku 2008\/2009 trv\u00e1 ji\u017e bezm\u00e1la 15 let.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Je to z pohledu ekonomick\u00fdch cykl\u016f od za\u010d\u00e1tku minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed v podstat\u011b bezprecedentn\u00ed obdob\u00ed r\u016fstu \u201eblahobytu\u201c. A je proto vhodn\u00e9 si b\u00fdt v\u011bdomi toho, \u017ee i toto obdob\u00ed jednou skon\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Naopak, \u010d\u00edm d\u00e9le trv\u00e1 stav bez prob\u011bhl\u00e9ho o\u010distn\u00e9ho procesu, t\u00edm siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1sledky takov\u00fd o\u010distn\u00fd proces bude m\u00edt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P\u0159ece jen za v\u00fd\u0161e uvedenou dobu mohl cyklus prob\u011bhnout ji\u017e minim\u00e1ln\u011b dvakr\u00e1t a vyhladit mnoh\u00e9 nerovnov\u00e1hy. To se s um\u011bl\u00fdmi z\u00e1sahy neustalo. Ne\u0159e\u0161en\u00e9 probl\u00e9my tak nad\u00e1le rostly a dorostly a\u017e do sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu, kter\u00fd by \u0161el popsat nikoli jako nerovnov\u00e1ha, ale jako naprost\u00e9 vych\u00fdlen\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Jako p\u0159\u00edklad lze uv\u00e9st \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd realitn\u00ed sektor, kde jednotliv\u00e9 firmy s dluhy p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00edmi HDP cel\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f o milionech lid\u00ed stoj\u00ed ji\u017e za hranou bankrotu <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2023\/06\/17\/nejbohatsi-muz-v-babylone-aneb-cesta-k-bohatstvi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(psal jsem zde)<\/a>. A kupodivu zat\u00edm st\u00e1le stoj\u00ed. Ale dlouho nebudou.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vych\u00fdlen\u00ed z ekonomick\u00e9ho pohledu jak financov\u00e1n\u00edm vysloven\u011b z\u00e1vadn\u00fdch projekt\u016f, p\u0159es ty zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 a\u017e po ty naddimenzovn\u00e9. To v\u0161e umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed nulov\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a ti\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed pen\u011bz. Asi jako stavba mrakodrapu z kostek bez spr\u00e1vn\u00e9ho z\u00e1kladu na obr\u00e1zku. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nejen pro tento p\u0159\u00edpad plat\u00ed motiva\u010dn\u00ed cit\u00e1t, kter\u00fd lze z\u00edskat jako obraz: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.motivar.cz\/motivacni-obraz-s-citatem-je-lepsi-byt-pripraven--nez-zaskocen\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201eJe lep\u0161\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159ipraven, ne\u017e zasko\u010den.\u201c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<script async=\"\" src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script><!-- Automatick\u00e1 velikost reklamy --><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: block;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9221645303649413\" data-ad-slot=\"8661693083\" data-ad-format=\"auto\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins><script>\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby jako katalyz\u00e1tor zm\u011bny<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Osobn\u011b se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee manipulace \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb centr\u00e1ln\u00edmi bankami je pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00edm faktorem, kter\u00fd ekonomick\u00e9 krize p\u0159\u00edmo a \u0159\u00edzen\u011b zp\u016fsobuje <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2021\/11\/21\/celosvetove-rizeny-ekonomicky-kolaps-se-blizi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(psal jsem zde)<\/a>. A tud\u00ed\u017e, \u017ee je to samo o sob\u011b podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru \u0161patn\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Centr\u00e1ln\u011b \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby jsou jak\u00fdmsi soci\u00e1ln\u00edm experimentem, kter\u00fd lidem \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 (a umo\u017e\u0148uje) kdy mohou utr\u00e1cet a kdy ne. Z toho plyne:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>N\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dostupnost \u00fav\u011br\u016f, lid\u00e9 za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed utr\u00e1cet, ekonomika se h\u00fdbe a kole\u010dka kapitalismu se rozt\u00e1\u010dej\u00ed. Lid\u00e9 nad\u0161en\u011b utr\u00e1cej\u00ed. Pen\u00edze se u nikoho dlouho nezdr\u017euj\u00ed, proto\u017ee jich je dost. Roste zam\u011bstnanost a kapacity v\u0161ech jsou napln\u011bn\u00e9 ba p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00e9. Nen\u00ed t\u0159eba se b\u00e1t o budoucnost, proto\u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed pen\u00edze p\u0159it\u00e9kaj\u00ed pomoc\u00ed jejich tvorby z nov\u00fdch a levn\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f. Cena pen\u011bz pro jejich nadbytek kles\u00e1. Prob\u00edh\u00e1 inflace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rostouc\u00ed a vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby znamenaj\u00ed opak. Lid\u00e9 si p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed podstatn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b nebo si rad\u011bji z obav o budoucnost nep\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed v\u016fbec. Do ob\u011bhu p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b nov\u00fdch pen\u011bz, kter\u00e9 se u ka\u017ed\u00e9ho oh\u0159ej\u00ed d\u00e9le. Zam\u011bstnanost kles\u00e1, kapacity p\u0159eb\u00fdvaj\u00ed. Lid\u00e9 \u0161et\u0159\u00ed. Ekonomika zamrz\u00e1. Cena pen\u011bz roste s jejich relativn\u00ed vz\u00e1cnost\u00ed. P\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed deflace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tak je \u0159\u00edzen kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd cyklus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Syst\u00e9m inflace a deflace<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00fd princip je zjednudu\u0161en\u00fdm popisem toho, jak vznik\u00e1 princip inflace deflace v ekonomice a jak\u00e9 s t\u00edm maj\u00ed zku\u0161enosti v Americe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2023\/07\/02\/americky-sen-po-cesku-aneb-bohati-bohatnou-a-chudi-chudnou\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(psal jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edv v jin\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku zde \u2013 doporu\u010duji p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst)<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00dam\u011brn\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00e9 dostupnosti \u00fav\u011br\u016f obvykle tak\u00e9 kles\u00e1 \u010di roste cena v\u011bc\u00ed vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fdch v pen\u011bz\u00edch. Nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem, kter\u00fd na tento \u0159\u00edzen\u00fd syst\u00e9m \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb nejl\u00e9pe reaguje je realitn\u00ed trh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb vedlo k prudk\u00e9mu r\u016fstu cen. Zn\u00e1me i u n\u00e1s. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb vedlo k zastaven\u00ed r\u016fstu cen a zah\u00e1jen\u00ed poklesu cen nemovitost\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>O zamrzl\u00e9m realitn\u00edm trhu jsem <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2023\/05\/27\/z-realitni-bubliny-rovnou-do-realitni-krize\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">psal ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve (zde)<\/a>. Je pak a\u017e s podivem, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 propagandistick\u00e9 \u010dl\u00e1nky v hlavn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch nad\u00e1le provol\u00e1vaj\u00ed hesla typu \u201eo\u017eiven\u00ed na realitn\u00ed trhu se dostavuje\u201c, \u201etrh o\u017e\u00edv\u00e1\u201c a nebo podobn\u00e9 \u017eblebty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nic takov\u00e9ho se s vysok\u00fdmi cenami a vysok\u00fdmi \u00faroky nestane. Ceny nemovitost\u00ed budou muset dol\u016f, aby kupuj\u00edc\u00edm kompenzovala ztr\u00e1ty v podob\u011b vysok\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, kter\u00e9 budou muset platit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed a dluhov\u00fd cyklus<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00dam\u011brn\u011b dostupnosti \u010di nedostupnosti, respektive vysok\u00e9 \u010di n\u00edzk\u00e9 cen\u011b zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, roste \u010di kles\u00e1 i \u00farove\u0148 dluh\u016f. Um\u011bl\u00e9 prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed dluhov\u00fdch cykl\u016f a snaha centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank zamaskovat probl\u00e9my vysok\u00e9ho zadlu\u017een\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm vedou na velmi \u0161patnou cestu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00fd efekt nav\u00edc dost mate b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 lidi i politiky. A to je znateln\u00e9 zejm\u00e9na v \u010dasech, kdy tento cyklus trv\u00e1 dlouho. Jako se to d\u011bje nyn\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lid\u00e9 pak maj\u00ed tendenci zapom\u00ednat na historick\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti. Tedy, \u017ee dluhy nabran\u00e9 v dobr\u00fdch \u010dasech maj\u00ed tendenci b\u00fdt podstatn\u011b h\u016f\u0159e splatiteln\u00e9 v t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00edch \u010dasech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/b-k-HAl6CKxM3xU-unsplash-1024x631.jpg\" alt=\"vlak, most, \u00fates, konomie, dluhov\u00fd cyklus, vrchol cyklu\" class=\"wp-image-4710\" width=\"388\" height=\"239\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/b-k-HAl6CKxM3xU-unsplash-1024x631.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/b-k-HAl6CKxM3xU-unsplash-300x185.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/b-k-HAl6CKxM3xU-unsplash-768x474.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/b-k-HAl6CKxM3xU-unsplash-1536x947.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/b-k-HAl6CKxM3xU-unsplash-150x93.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/b-k-HAl6CKxM3xU-unsplash-696x429.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/b-k-HAl6CKxM3xU-unsplash-1068x659.jpg 1068w, https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/b-k-HAl6CKxM3xU-unsplash.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 388px) 100vw, 388px\" \/><figcaption>Vlak, kter\u00fd postupn\u011b m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed k \u00fatesu, ze kter\u00e9ho se z\u0159\u00edt\u00ed. Zdroj Unsplah<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Sou\u010dasn\u011b i mno\u017estv\u00ed dluh\u016f, kter\u00e9 je mo\u017en\u00e9 i za specificky p\u0159\u00edhodn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek nakumulovat je omezen\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jednodu\u0161e se nelze zadlu\u017eovat do nekone\u010dna. A pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00edm lze rozeznat vrchol dluhov\u00e9ho cyklu. Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b je celosv\u011btov\u00e9 zadlu\u017een\u00ed odhadovan\u00e9 na cca 350 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho HDP <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/en\/research-insights\/featured\/special-editorial\/look-forward\/global-debt-leverage-is-a-great-reset-coming\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(zdroj zde)<\/a>. Tedy t\u0159i a p\u016flkr\u00e1t v\u00edc, ne\u017e sv\u011bt souhrnn\u011b ro\u010dn\u011b vyprodukuje, ji\u017e dlu\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A je a\u017e s podivem, \u017ee na konci ekonomick\u00e9ho i dluhov\u00e9ho cyklu prob\u00edh\u00e1 pravideln\u011b jak\u00e1si m\u00e1nie, kdy se mnoz\u00ed sna\u017e\u00ed na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli nasko\u010dit do dluhov\u00e9ho vlaku p\u0159i vysok\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch, kter\u00fd pomalu, ale jist\u011b m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed k \u00fatesu, ze kter\u00e9ho se v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b z\u0159\u00edt\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<script async=\"\" src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script><!-- Automatick\u00e1 velikost reklamy --><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: block;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9221645303649413\" data-ad-slot=\"8661693083\" data-ad-format=\"auto\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins><script>\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dal\u0161\u00ed faktory sou\u010dasnosti<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Existuj\u00ed v\u0161ak je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fvody, kter\u00e9 ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed jak d\u00e9lku tak rozsah ekonomick\u00fdch cykl\u016f. Nap\u0159\u00edklad:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1) Demografick\u00e1 k\u0159ivka populace<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se ekonomika zadrhla i d\u00edky tomu, \u017ee se v podstat\u011b celosv\u011btov\u011b zastavil a oto\u010dil trend r\u016fstu populace. V \u010cR, stejn\u011b jako v podstat\u011b v\u0161ude po sv\u011bt\u011b se ji\u017e nyn\u00ed popula\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek zastavil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jedin\u00fd d\u016fvod pro\u010d \u010d\u00edsla populace v celkov\u00e9m vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed st\u00e1le rostou je, \u017ee d\u00e9le \u017eij\u00ed star\u0161\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00edky. Mlad\u00e9 je v\u0161ak nedopl\u0148uj\u00ed a nevyhnuteln\u011b pak p\u0159ijde popula\u010dn\u00ed pokles <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2023\/06\/03\/populacni-zlom-nikoliv-rust-ale-ubytek-populace-nas-ceka\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(psal jsem v\u00edce zde)<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2) Vrchol zadlu\u017een\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Po bezprecedentn\u00edm obdob\u00ed r\u016fstu zadlu\u017een\u00ed do\u0161lo tak\u00e9 na mnoha m\u00edstech k vrcholu v objemu zadlu\u017een\u00ed. Tedy vrcholu dluhov\u00e9ho cyklu. Vrchol, na kter\u00e9m ji\u017e nelze p\u0159eb\u00edjet star\u00e9 dluhy nov\u00fdmi. A logicky je nutn\u00e9 dluhy bu\u010f za\u010d\u00edt odepisovat nebo spl\u00e1cet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oboje je silnou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou dal\u0161\u00edho r\u016fstu ekonomiky. To pochopiteln\u011b povede k n\u011bjak\u00e9mu zabr\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed. Nechme se v\u0161ak p\u0159ekvapit k jak\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00e9 d\u011bje jsou do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry p\u0159irozen\u00e9, do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 ve prosp\u011bch jak\u00e9si z\u00e1mo\u017en\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed elity, ono 1 % nejbohat\u0161\u00edch, kte\u0159\u00ed ji\u017e nyn\u00ed vlastn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu sv\u011btov\u00e9ho bohatstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To, co n\u00e1s v budouc\u00edch letech \u010dek\u00e1 a nemine bude ohromn\u00e9 p\u0159eskupov\u00e1n\u00ed majetk\u016f a bohatstv\u00ed. Pokud jsou lid\u00e9, firmy \u010di st\u00e1ty pod tlakem dluh\u016f nuceni prod\u00e1vat majetky pod cenou, aby splatili sv\u00e9 dluhy, lze takov\u00e9 majetky tak\u00e9 levn\u011b skoupit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tohle v\u0161echno v\u0161ak n\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00e1mo\u017en\u00e9 rodiny zejm\u00e9na ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed ji\u017e dlouho v\u011bd\u00ed. N\u011bkter\u00e9 jevy sami postrkuj\u00ed a \u0159\u00edd\u00ed. Jsou v\u0161ak p\u0159ipraveni na p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch ud\u00e1lostech zbohatnout je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc. A nejl\u00e9pe udr\u017eovat v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed v\u010detn\u011b cel\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v dluhov\u00e9m otroctv\u00ed, ze kter\u00e9ho se nevyhrabou. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2023\/02\/25\/hromadny-statni-bankrot-aneb-globaliste-boduji-a-smerovani-ceska\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Psal jsem (zde) d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 \u010dten\u00ed o st\u00e1tech na hranici bankrotu<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pokud v\u00edte co p\u0159ijde, dok\u00e1\u017eete se p\u0159ipravit tak, abyste nejenom neztratili, ale i z\u00edskali. Ud\u011blejme to proto podobn\u011b a nedovolme jim, aby n\u00e1s p\u0159ipravili o na\u0161e bohatstv\u00ed. O bohatstv\u00ed jednotlivc\u016f, firem st\u00e1tu i cel\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed podm\u00ednkou finan\u010dn\u00edho p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed jsou rezervy a stabilita. D\u00e1le co nejm\u00e9n\u011b pot\u0159ebovat syst\u00e9m k vlastn\u00edmi \u017eivotu a p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed. D\u00e1le pak schopnost neztratit nervy a schopnost jednat za ka\u017ed\u00e9, by\u0165 sebenep\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed situace. V\u017edycky je cesta ven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V r\u00e1mci m\u00e9ho projektu motiva\u010dn\u00edch obraz\u016f s cit\u00e1tem, kter\u00e9 je mo\u017en\u00e9 zakoupit pro zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed motivace p\u0159i specifick\u00fdch situac\u00edch, by \u0161ly nejl\u00e9pe pou\u017e\u00edt n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.motivar.cz\/motivacni-citat-jednou-z-nejbeznejsich-pricin-neuspechu-je-zvyk-vzdavat-se\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201eJednou z nejb\u011b\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch p\u0159\u00ed\u010din ne\u00fasp\u011bchu je zvyk vzd\u00e1vat se, kdy\u017e \u010dlov\u011bk potk\u00e1 do\u010dasn\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka.\u201c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.motivar.cz\/motivacni-obraz-ten--kdo-vitezi--se-nikdy-nevzdava\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201eTen kdo v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed, se nikdy nevzd\u00e1v\u00e1.\u201c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.motivar.cz\/motivacni-obraz-s-citatem-vytrvalost-prinasi-stesti\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201eVytrvalost p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed.\u201c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Co d\u011blat:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mus\u00edme se aktivn\u011b sna\u017eit co nejl\u00e9pe p\u0159ipravit a omezovat rizika. Z\u00e1kladem je m\u00edt pl\u00e1n. Ten sv\u016fj jsem popsal v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch bodech:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2022\/07\/18\/sobestacnost-rezerva-a-plan-na-horsi-casy-k-preziti-civilizacni-krize\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1) Sob\u011bsta\u010dnost, rezerva a pl\u00e1n k p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed civiliza\u010dn\u00ed krize (psal jsem zde)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2022\/07\/24\/voda-a-potraviny-plan-zasoby-a-sobestacnost-k-preziti-civilizacni-krize\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2) Voda a potraviny: pl\u00e1n, z\u00e1soby a sob\u011bsta\u010dnost k p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed civiliza\u010dn\u00ed krize (psal jsem zde)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2022\/08\/04\/energie-plan-zasoby-a-sobestacnost-k-preziti-civilizacni-krize\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">3) Energie: pl\u00e1n z\u00e1soby a sob\u011bsta\u010dnost k p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed civiliza\u010dn\u00ed krize (psal jsem zde)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2022\/08\/20\/penize-dum-pole-zlato-hotovost-a-rezervy-k-preziti-civilizacni-krize\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">4) Pen\u00edze: d\u016fm, pole, zlato a hotovost k p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed civiliza\u010dn\u00ed krize (psal jsem zde)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2022\/08\/29\/leciva-a-osetreni-jako-doplnek-k-preziti-civilizacni-krize\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">5) L\u00e9\u010diva a o\u0161et\u0159en\u00ed jako dopln\u011bk k p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed civiliza\u010dn\u00ed krize (psal jsem zde)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba m\u00edt c\u00edl a pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b se p\u0159ipravovat. Proto je pot\u0159eba m\u00edt na pam\u011bti motiva\u010dn\u00ed cit\u00e1t v obraze, a sice \u017ee <a href=\"https:\/\/www.motivar.cz\/motivacni-citat-v-kazdy-moment-mas-vse-potrebne-k-dosazeni-sveho-cile\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201eV ka\u017ed\u00fd moment, m\u00e1\u0161 v\u0161e pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 k dosa\u017een\u00ed sv\u00e9ho c\u00edle.\u201c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"> &#8212; konec \u010dl\u00e1nku &#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><em>D\u00e1l se m\u016f\u017eete pod\u00edvat do e-shopu <a href=\"http:\/\/motivar.cz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" title=\"Motiv\u00e1\u0159.cz\">Motiv\u00e1\u0159.cz<\/a> a vybrat si z \u0159ady designov\u00fdch motiva\u010dn\u00edch obraz\u016f s cit\u00e1tem s podtitulem &#8222;denn\u00ed d\u00e1vka motivace a dobr\u00e9 n\u00e1lady&#8220;. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b se domluvit na osobn\u00ed konzultaci ohledn\u011b mo\u017enost\u00ed ochrany majetku i p\u0159es p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 turbulence <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/produkt\/osobni-konzultace-kryptomeny\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(zde)<\/a> anebo se m\u016f\u017eete pod\u00edvat na Videobesedu o pouti do Santiaga de Compostela <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/produkt\/videobeseda-3-000-kilometru-pesky-do-santiaga-de-compostela\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(zde)<\/a> a t\u0159eba si p\u0159itom i trochu vy\u010distit hlavu. <\/em>A nebo si po\u0159\u00eddit hezkou voskovou sv\u00ed\u010dku z rodinn\u00e9 manufaktury <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sochorskymlyn.cz\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" title=\"(zde)\">(zde)<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><em>I nad\u00e1le se v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017eete t\u011b\u0161it na dal\u0161\u00ed zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 t\u00e9mata. Rozhodn\u011b se proto <strong>zapi\u0161te k odb\u011bru novinek<\/strong> do formul\u00e1\u0159e n\u00ed\u017ee, aby V\u00e1m nic neuniklo nebo <strong>podpo\u0159te provoz<\/strong> tohoto blogu p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvkem <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/2019\/04\/13\/podporte-dalsi-rozvoj-blogu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(v\u00edce zde)<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><strong>P\u0159ihl\u00e1sit k odb\u011bru novinek:<\/strong> [mc4wp_form id=&#8220;175&#8243;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bohatstv\u00ed je z\u00e1kladn\u00ed lidsk\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo. Ekonomick\u00fd cyklus p\u0159eskupuje bohatstv\u00ed. Dluhy a \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 cykly. Syst\u00e9m inflace a deflace. Dluhov\u00fd vrchol a dal\u0161\u00ed faktory. Co d\u011blat a jak se p\u0159ipravit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4705,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1405,1392,1354],"tags":[1483,1493,1494],"class_list":["post-4702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-a-investice","category-sobestacnost","category-spolecnost","tag-bohatstvi","tag-ekonomicky-cyklus","tag-urokove-sazby"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/towfiqu-barbhuiya-joqWSI9u_XM-unsplash.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4702\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jindrichsmitka.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}